Is Ukraine-Russia war first of the Energy and Water conflict of the 21st Century?

The Russian forces stormed into Georgia in 2008 with little resistance, and they took over Crimea in 2014 as well.

But this time Russian forces met with the strong resistance of the Ukrainian people led by their president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Earlier in 2014 people overthrew the pro-Russian – Yanukovych government. After Yanukovych refused to sign the association agreement for closer trade ties with the European Union. In feb 2014 Yanukovych fled Ukraine.

Putin’s focus then turned to Crimea, a peninsula in the south of the country which is home to an ethnic Russian majority. He invaded Crimea and seized it from Ukraine in March 2014.

Right now Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine is going on and Zelenskyy is currently leading his army and countrymen against the Russian military might. He is a hero already for the world through his stand against Putin. Earlier he also called for Russian people in his strong and emotional speech.

So what is the Oil and Water story?

The Gas Pipeline

The west front of Ukraine bordering Poland is a part of the North European plain opening a way into Russian from European side. Across this North European plain Soviet Union laid down 2 main Gas pipelines (Brother hood and Soyuz Gas Pipeline).

Brother hood gas pipeline has been operational since 1983 and Soyuz Gas Pipeline is in operation since 1978. These pipelines stretch from the coldest northen parts of Russia, run across Ukraine and into Europe.

When Ukraine became independent after the fall of the Soviet Union in Dec 1991.  Russia agreed to pay Ukraine nearly $1.2 billion per year as gas transit fee for using Ukraine as a gateway passage for their pipelines.

To reduce the dependency on Ukraine territory, in 1994 Russia started to built additional pipelines (Yamal-Europe Gas Pipeline & Nord Stream) bypassing Ukraine.

Controlling Ukraine for the safe passage of gas pipelines without fee is one of the reasons for Putin’s invasion.

The Oil and Gas Reserves

In 2012 towards the Eastern and western parts of Ukraine huge reserve of oil and gas was found. It was also found out that Ukraine’s specialized economic zone in the Black Sea towards Crimea contains huge reserves of natural gas.

Ukraine later gave permission to Shell and Exxon for drilling and exploration. But when Russia took over Crimea in 2014 they also got control of 80% of the oil reserves in the Black Sea along with the machines and equipment left when operations stopped.

For Russia having control over oil is essential in increasing the world’s dependence on its oil and gas exports.

The Water Story

Crimea is almost like an island in the black sea. It has no rivers of its own.

In 1975 Soviet Union build the North Crimean Canal canal from Ukraine to Crimea connected via narrow passage of land. After Russia took over Crimea, Ukraine blocked the canal, which was the major source of water for entire Crimea.

Russias then had to supply water from its nearest point via ships or through Kerch Strait Bridge, which costs Russia millions of dollars yearly.

As of 26 February 2022, Russian forces took control of the North Crimean Canal. The concrete dam was destroyed by an explosion and the water supply was resumed.

Footage of the explosion of the dam on the North Crimean Canal, which prevented water from the Dnipro river to get to the inhabitants of the Crimea.

Once that is done Russia will now start exploring the gas reserves in the Black sea and use Crimea’s ports to control the Black Sea. In a way, the control of water for movement into its occupied territory (Crimea) is also one of the reasons for this madness.

Putin’s preparations

Apart from the surprise resistance he is met within Ukraine, Putin was mostly sure of his victory. And has been planning for an invasion of Ukraine after the Yanukovych government was overthrown.

• In 2014 the world put sanctions on Russian after the invasion of Crimea. From then Russia was working to reduce the financial dependency of its markets on other countries.

Russia still exports 30% of its gas to European countries. And for Europe, 60% of the energy comes from Russia. Germany already imports 35% of its gas from Russia. This interdependence will not let European countries stop the energy purchase from Russia.

• Putin also knows any country with nuclear warheads won’t jump into this war. As most of the countries with nuclear power also have the capability of 2nd strike after being attacked first. This means a war between 2 nuclear countries is a disaster for both.

Ambition and Greed

Ambition for the personal legacy of an authoritarian leader Putin. He grew up when the Soviet Union was in its glory days. Putin wants himself to go down into history as someone who has reinstated Russia’s glory to the old Soviet era.

He thinks only he can do that, and he declared himself as the prime minister till 2036.

With the state of current affairs, it seems like the frightening days when energy and water are being the reason for the warfare are real.

This coupled with a mad authoritarian leader is a sure recipe of disaster for the entire world.

What can we do now

The world has already come together to support Ukraine in many ways.

• Global Sanctions are in place

• EU planning to ban Russia from SWIFT system for international banking

• Elon musk providing Starlink internet system

• Donations pouring to support groups

• Neighboring countries like Poland, Hungary opened borders for incoming refugees

• Google Maps live traffic data was disabled to protect Ukrainian citizens

• Airbnb to provide housing for 100000 Ukrainian refugees

These are all ongoing efforts.

If I had to state the prime reason for this global catastrophe, it would be The ambition and greed of an authoritarian leader. And his wish to live a dream of the faded glory of the past, at the cost of millions of lives.

So what can we do as someone who feels the pain and suffering caused due to this war? We can of course make donations to many support groups. But for the future, we have to prepare better.

It is actually up to us, the common people to ensure that our leaders don’t follow this path. And to demand that they stand for justice and protecting democracy.

It is up to us, to keep in check the authoritarian powers to advance at the helm of affairs. By demanding to strengthen the democratic institutions.

It is up to us, to demand authorities to invest in cleaner sources of energy. And make policies to enable this transition in the long run.

It is up to us, to save the world from ecological and humanitarian disasters lead by ambition and greed.

Source: https://curioustitans.substack.com/p/is-ukraine-russia-war-first-of-the